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| | | | The first few polls that include results for October 3 the day after the VP debate are in and guess what? Obama's lead coontinues to grow. It is now 5.9% for the Average and the Gallup, Rasmussen and Hotline/FD TRacking polls are show no gains for McCain.
RCP Average 09/26 - 10/03 -- 49.3 43.4 Obama +5.9
Gallup Tracking 10/01 - 10/03 2703 RV 50 42 Obama +8
Rasmussen Tracking 10/01 - 10/03 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/01 - 10/03 915 LV 48 41 Obama +7
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/29 - 10/02 800 LV 49 46 Obama +3
Marist 09/28 - 09/30 943 LV 49 44 Obama +5
CBS News 09/27 - 09/30 769 LV 50 41 Obama +9
Associated Press/GfK 09/27 - 09/30 808 LV 48 41 Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 09/27 - 09/29 916 LV 50 46 Obama +4
Pew Research 09/27 - 09/29 1181 LV 49 43 Obama +6
Ipsos/McClatchy 09/26 - 09/29 1007 RV 48 45 Obama +3
Time 09/26 - 09/29 1133 LV 50 43 Obama +7
Yup, It is appearing more and more likely that McCain will get to the White House...when Obama invites him over for dinner.
From Rasmussen:
Saturday, October 04, 2008
With one month to go until Election Day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. For each of the past nine days, Obama has been at 50% or 51% and McCain has been at 44% or 45% (see trends). The stability of these results suggests that the McCain campaign faces a very steep challenge in the remaining few weeks of Election 2008.
From Gallup:
October 4, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama Maintains Significant MarginLead is eight points, 50% to 42%
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 1-3 finds 50% of registered voters supporting Barack Obama, and 42% John McCain, for president.
Obama has now held a statistically significant lead over McCain for the last eight days, one shy of his campaign-best streak of nine days with a lead around the time of the Democratic National Convention. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
Voter preferences appear somewhat stable at the moment, as Obama has held similar advantages over McCain in each of the last three individual nights' polling. That includes Friday polling, the first interviews conducted following Thursday's widely viewed vice presidential debate, the passage of the economic rescue bill supported by both Obama and McCain, and Friday's bleak jobs report.
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| | | | Obama isn't going to make it to the White House. Given his freshman status in the Senate, there won't even be a reason to invite him.
Have to wait until Monday for the polls.
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| | | | Why wait until Monday? Polls are taken every day now by three organizations all included in the RCP average, Gallup, Rasmussen and Hotline/FD Tracking. All three now have two full days of data since the VP debate included in their 3 day tracking. No change since yesterday in the average Obama lead. Obama lost a point in Gallup and gained one in Rasmussen so that all 3 of those today have the same result, Obama +7. The VP debate has had no impact on the voters preference for President. No Palin effect. Too bad Sarah, too bad GOP.
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 09/26 - 10/04 -- 49.3 43.4 Obama +5.9
Gallup Tracking 10/02 - 10/04 2728 RV 50 43 Obama +7
Rasmussen Tracking 10/02 - 10/04 3000 LV 51 44 Obama +7
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/02 - 10/04 915 LV 48 41 Obama +7
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/29 - 10/02 800 LV 49 46 Obama +3
Marist 09/28 - 09/30 943 LV 49 44 Obama +5
CBS News 09/27 - 09/30 769 LV 50 41 Obama +9
Associated Press/GfK 09/27 - 09/30 808 LV 48 41 Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 09/27 - 09/29 916 LV 50 46 Obama +4
Pew Research 09/27 - 09/29 1181 LV 49 43 Obama +6
Ipsos/McClatchy 09/26 - 09/29 1007 RV 48 45 Obama +3
Time 09/26 - 09/29 1133 LV 50 43 Obama +7
I especially liked Rasmussen's analysis today:
"Forty-five percent (45%) of voters say they are certain they will vote for Obama and will not change their mind. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say the same about McCain. Thirteen percent (13%) currently have a preference for one of the candidates but might change their mind. Four percent (4%) are either undecided or plan to vote for a third-party candidate.
One way of understanding the difficult challenge now facing McCain is to consider the relatively small group of persuadable voters who could still change their mind. The Republican hopeful would have to win nearly 80% of those votes to pull ahead in the race. That’s especially challenging because most of those voters are currently leaning towards Obama. In other words, while the race is not over, McCain needs a significant--game-changing—event to win the White House. Simply doing what he’s been doing a little better will not be enough. "
So as announced by his campaign and Palin this weekend, the last ditch desperation route of taking off the gloves and going totally negative will be McCain's strategy for the last month of the campaign. Seems to me that announcing this strategy is not such a good strategy. While negative campaigning has worked for Republicans in the past it is probably too late in the game this time and most voters will just see it for what it is, a pathetic attempt to win at any cost which will turn off voters this time. Like Rasmussen says, it's not over, but it's pretty close. Palin, the last great hope of the GOP, has been no help. McCain lost ground after his campaign suspension stunt and the first debate on foreign policy - his supposed strong suit. Can't wait for Tuesday to see if McCain steps up the personal attacks in the second debate and watch that backfire on the grumpy old man too.
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| | | | Sarah did well enough that I just sent the RNC another $1000.00. I vote with my wallet. If they want more then Senator McCain had better blast it out of the park tuesday.
She will likely send me another picture *s*
Capitalizm without failure...is like Religion without Hell.
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| | | | LAM, Save your money, you can get better pictures of her for free.
http://www.popcrunch.com/sarah-palin-picture-gallery/
I like that one of her in her college dorm wearing the t-shirt that says "I may be broke but I'm not flat busted"
I can't wait to see what kind of pic of McCain $1,000 will get you. |
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| | | | I have several of the senator and his wife Cindy.
framed in My office....
Capitalizm without failure...is like Religion without Hell.
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| | | | | Yeah, and I have one of GWB and me framed in my office next to the one of Clinton and me. Big deal. I'm thinking of selling the GWB one on eBay, it's become an embarassment. Let me know if you are interested and maybe we can work something out before I see what it can fetch on the open market. |
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| | | | I have plenty of George and Laura too.
Politicians are big on pictures.
I have pictures of Ronald Reagon and Chalton Heston on my wall too and Bear Bryant and Winston Churchill. But I've never bought a picture. All my pictures are of patriots.
who respected their flag and their country.
I suppose you have pictures of yourself with Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt. Did you appear on TV with them after the stock market crash in '29. I think Joe Biden did.
Capitalizm without failure...is like Religion without Hell.
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| | | | | Nah, I only have those two photographs framed in my office. I'm not big on putting up pictures of dead people I've never met. What happened to your pictures of J Edgar Hoover and Joe McCarthy? |
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